Lawrence Jacobs
NOTES Third Millennium, "Social Security: The Credibility Gap," Survey by Frank Luntz and Mark Siegel, September 1994. A March 1997 Washington Post poll question asked: "Would you say you know a lot, a fair amount, very little, or nothing about Social Security?" 5% selected a lot, 51% fair amount, 40% not too well informed, and 4% not at all informed. The Employee Benefit Research Institute asked: "Would you say that you are very confidence, somewhat confident, not too confidence or not at all confidence... that you have a good understanding of how the Social Security system works." 21% selected very confident, 41 somewhat confident, 23% not too confident, 13% not at all confident, and 2% reported not knowing. There was some drop off: the proportion who indicated that they followed Social Security "very" or "fairly" closely in the news fell from 64% in January 1997 to 49% in February. Public Agenda Foundation, "Miles to Go: A Status Report on Americans' Plans for Retirement," 1997. Public Agenda Foundation, "Miles to Go: A Status Report on Americans' Plans for Retirement," 1997. EBRI's survey may be inflated by context effects due to prior questions about the nature of UFOs. A preliminary survey in New York State that avoided the pitfalls of such context effects found results that were lower than EBRI's but still confirmed the inaccuracy of the Third Millennium report. The survey was conducted by the Barnard-Columbia Center for Urban Policy/1199 Communications Center. Public Agenda Foundation, "Miles to Go: A Status Report on Americans' Plans for Retirement," 1997. DYG found a similar pattern in its two surveys in 1995 and 1996. "Social Security and Medicare: An Ongoing Study of Public Values and Attitudes," conducted by DYG, Inc for the AARP, Fall 1996. "Social Security and Medicare: An Ongoing Study of Public Values and Attitudes," conducted by DYG, Inc for the AARP, Fall 1996. Princeton Survey Research Associates asked: (As a taxpayer, please tell me whether you generally approve or disapprove of having your tax dollars used to help pay for each of the following.) What about... Social Security for better off retired people?" "Social Security and Medicare: An Ongoing Study of Public Values and Attitudes," conducted by DYG, Inc for the AARP, Fall 1996. National Issues Forums Report on the Issues, 1997. "The National Piggybank: Does Our Retirement System Need Fixing?" Conducted by John Doble Research Associates. "Social Security and Medicare: An Ongoing Study of Public Values and Attitudes," conducted by DYG, Inc for the AARP, Fall 1996. The survey asked: "Under the existing Social Security plan workers and their employers each contribute equally to total payroll taxes of 12/4% which is paid on $65,400 of workers' annual salary. Do you favor or oppose the existing Social Security plan?" 64% favored the existing arrangement and 29% opposed it. Public Agenda Foundation, "Miles to Go: A Status Report on Americans' Plans for Retirement," 1997. National Issues Forums Report on the Issues, 1997. "The National Piggybank: Does Our Retirement System Need Fixing?" Conducted by John Doble Research Associates. Public Agenda Foundation, "Miles to Go: A Status Report on Americans' Plans for Retirement," 1997, p.24. Roper. Gallup Polls, 1990-1998, The Gallup Poll and press releases. March and June 1996. Roper. "Remarkable Returns may Raise Unrealistic Expectations," In the Vanguard, Winter 1997. The question asked: "There is a proposal that would allow people to invest some of their Social Security payroll contributions in the stock market. This change means that when people retire, their benefits could either be higher or lower than expected, depending on the stock market's performance. Would you favor or oppose this proposal to allow people to invest their Social Security payroll contributions in the stock market?" The December poll found that 46% favored the proposal and 44% opposed; the January poll found a 48-46 split. The question asked: "There is a proposal that would allow people to invest some of their Social Security payroll contributions in the stock market. This change means that when people retire, their benefits could either be higher or lower than expected, depending on the stock market's performance. Thinking about the possibility of investing some of your Social Security payroll contributions in the stock market, which one of the following statements would you say best describes your opinion? Statement A: The risk of losing money in the stock market outweighs the potential of higher returns from investing in the stock market. Statement B: The potential of higher returns from investing in the stock market outweighs the risk of losing money in the stock market." 37% indicated that the potential returns outweigh the risk. The question asks: "This proposal to allow people to invest Social Security contributions in the stock market also includes an increase in the payroll tax for current employees, as well as an increase in the federal deficit, so that benefits to current retirees also can be maintained. Do you think the benefits of allowing people to invest Social Security contributions in the stock market outweigh these costs of higher payroll taxes and deficits, or do you think the costs outweigh the benefits?" 22% believed that the benefits outweigh the cost. The December 1996 survey may have more attractive to respondents because it did not mention that reducing the CPI would "raise some future income taxes" as the March 1997 survey did (it also did not add the view of economists). The March 1997 survey asked: "There is now a proposal to reduce the government's official measure of inflation, called the Consumer Price Index, which some economists believe does not accurately reflect price increases. This will reduce future cost-of-living increases in such programs as Social Security and veterans' benefits, but also will reduce the federal deficit and raise some future income taxes. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose reducing the Consumer Price Index in this manner?" The December 1996 question asked: "There is now a proposal to reduce the government's official measure of inflation, called the Consumer Price Index. This will reduce future cost-of-living increases in such programs as Social Security and veterans' benefits, but also will reduce the federal deficit. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose reducing the Consumer Price Index in this manner?" The CBS/NYT question asked: "To make sure future Social Security benefits continue to be at least as good as today's benefits, would you favor or oppose paying higher Social Security taxes?" The Washington Post question posed: "In order to keep the Social Security program financially sound in the future, would favor or oppose each of the following proposals?... Having everyone pay more in Social Security taxes?" National Issues Forums Report on the Issues, 1997. "The National Piggybank: Does Our Retirement System Need Fixing?" Conducted by John Doble Research Associates. Employee Benefits Research Institute, "Survey on Retirement Confidence," Wave VII, 1997. Curriculum Vitae / Bio Selected Articles and Reports / Recent Media References to Research