A common assumption is that low confidence in Social Security's future erodes support for Social Security. The conventional wisdom is displayed in Figure 7 using hypothetical data. As confidence drops, support is also expected to dip.

Here again we have a widespread assumption that is utterly lacking in support. Figures 7 - 8 Figure 8 plots the trends for both confidence and support; the data for confidence is taken from Table 7, while the data for support is based on the spending items in Table 9 as well as two additional sources for earlier time points. The trends for support and confidence are clear and striking: neither low confidence or downward shifts in confidence consistently coincide with declining support. Confidence crashed from the 60%-50% range in the mid-1970s to 39% in 1979 and then 32% in 1982 and, yet, there was no appreciable change in support for the program. The 1990s also produced a similar pattern in which confidence plummeted but support remained relatively steady.

The conventional wisdom that the public's backing for Social Security is crumbling under the strain of low confidence is simply not supported by available evidence. In social science parlance, confidence and support do not seem to covary.

The explanation for this apparent paradox of overwhelming support for a program whose future is questioned lies in three factors that extend far beyond the particular challenges facing Social Security: economic anxieties, mistrust of government, and disproportionately negative news coverage. Supermajorities support Social Security but fear that politicians or economic downturn will ruin it (Friedland and Reno).

Expectations of a high standard of living in retirement combined with fears of inflation and economic downturn produce a potent threat to sustained confidence. Indeed, overwhelming proportions of Americans fear that economic bad news will hurt their financial situation in retirement. A 1997 survey by the Public Agenda Foundation found that 79% worried about inflation, 74% were concerned about high health care costs, and 66% expected a souring economy to undermine retirement plans.¹⁴

The confidence of Americans in Social Security is unavoidably colored by their distrust in government in general. Confidence in government in general has recently been at or near its all-time lows, with the most disaffected concentrated among the young (who are the least confident in Social Security). The National Issue Forums (NIF), which have convened deliberations and focus groups in a dozen or so communities around the country, found in 1997 that general "cynicism about government competence and trustworthiness" has fuelled specific concerns about Social Security's ability to handle the retirement of babyboomers. NIF participants simply assumed that politicians would "play politics" with Social Security.¹⁵ A 40 year old New Mexico man captured the pervasive skepticism toward government when he complained in a Public Agenda Foundation study, "I don't think the politicians up there should have any control over it -- I don't trust them."¹⁶ Social Security's problem is a symptom of a larger problem.

Finally, the media's systematic framing of Social Security in terms of its problems and unending need for change can only increase Americans' anxiety about whether it will be there for them. Our analysis for the National Academy of Social Insurance of thousands of stories in the Associated Press and leading broadcast and print outlets found a persistent pattern: Social Security received large but relatively brief bursts of extensive media coverage that disproportionately zeroed in on Social Security's problems and on the need to reform the program by tackling the contentious issues of reducing benefits and financial restructuring (Jacobs et al, 1995a; Jacobs et al, 1995b). For Americans who follow the debate over Social Security in the mass media, the message is that Social Security is very difficult to sustain without constant doctoring. The public's confidence in Social Security, then, is most likely a function of dread of government, media coverage, and economic fears.